The Lifesaving metric of LTV to CAC

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📊 The Survival Ratio: LTV to CAC and the Metric That Predicts Your Lifespan

You’re not measured by your ROAS. You’re measured by what it costs to keep growing.

Every brand eventually hits this wall: Acquisition gets harder. CAC rises. Retention feels like a leaky bucket. And the dashboards? Still bragging about 4.2x ROAS.

That’s how good brands die slowly — chasing metrics that can’t see around corners.

The metric that actually predicts survival?

LTV-to-CAC. Or what we call: The Survival Ratio.

Why This Ratio Matters More Than ROAS Ever Will

LTV isn’t just “what a customer is worth.” It’s a mirror.

It tells you whether your product, positioning, and post-purchase experience actually deserve a second order.

CAC, on the other hand, is the cost of convincing someone to care. When that number rises — as it always does — it reveals every weakness in your offer.

Most founders only glance at this ratio at board meetings. You should be checking it weekly.

Here’s the general truth:

• Under 1:1? You’re setting money on fire
• Around 2:1? You’re surviving
• Above 3:1? You’ve got breathing room
• Over 4:1? You’ve got leverage and brand power — now don’t waste it on discounts

In consumables, a 3:1 ratio within 90 days is healthy.

In fashion or high-AOV categories, 2:1 over 6 months might be more realistic — but you must know your timeline.

A Tactical Check That Can Save You This Quarter

Run a 60-day cohort analysis by first product purchased.

Segment customers by entry offer. Track repurchase behavior and CAC side by side.

You’ll instantly see which products are acquisition traps — high CTRs, high CAC, low LTV. Cut or fix those before they scale.

The brands that survive long-term aren’t the ones with the prettiest dashboards.

They’re the ones who build around this ratio, obsess over it, and know exactly how it’s trending week to week. If you don’t own your Survival Ratio, it’ll own you.

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